"OracleFX"?

Just hours after Oracle announced Sun's acquisition, many posts were published with analysis and speculations. Javalobby has the most profound talk and lengthy comments, with a dedicated column on the fate of Sun technologies. WSJ posted live blog from the Sun/Oracle conference call, along with its report and journal. While Gartner is still looking for the community input before speaking up in confidence, we would like to answer the following question: what is the future of Sun software, and JavaFX in particular, under Oracle Corp.?

By common opinion, the deal is appraised higher than the previous one with IBM in terms of Sun business and core competency survival, for reason far from the corporate strategy: Oracle and Sun have fewer areas in common, and a smaller number of technologies and organizations (as well as people) will be found redundant after the acquisition. This also bears a risk of not that smooth assimilation, but Oracle's CEO and President estimate it as very low.

There are 6 main Sun software products that I would like to discuss:

• Solaris
• Java
• JavaFX
• MySQL
• Netbeans
• Glassfish

I specifically mentioned JavaFX as a separate item for convenience, even though Sun committed to full integration and dissolution of JavaFX in the future releases of Java.

Solaris, along with Java and hardware, were explicitly mentioned by Larry Ellison at the conference call as technologies Oracle spent seven and a half billion dollars for.

The future of MySQL, NetBeans and Glassfish is a bit murky: for all these 3 product Oracle has at least one existing comparable in house. Not a subject to NIH rule, Oracle can easily transition to the new software set, if it is found to be better for making money off--business that Oracle has mastered to perfection. It looks like Oracle' engineering and marketing teams due diligence will make their call later this year.

For JavaFX, my prediction will be either complete hit or miss.

Oracle is a server company, with a few nice front ends, such as Beehive, but they have Oracle famous server suite as a back end. We also can mention Java applet based Oracle Forms that is used inside Oracle E-Business Suite. Not that much space for RIA. From this perspective, it's hard to assume that JavaFX is a keeper.

But let's look into potential markets where Oracle can make money on Sun technologies.

Importance of nice GUI, running in the browser - Rich Internet Applications - has increased dramatically for the last years. The space, traditionally occupied by Adobe, attracted such big players as Microsoft and Sun. The leading server technology vendor can not ignore this trend, especially if its product line is getting more oriented toward consumers.

Another point: JavaFX runs on desktop and phones, and TV is next. With JavaFX, Oracle can get into mobile and home theater segments, and will be able to offer products competitive to Flash Lite, and Flash on TV that will be released this year. Considering the revenue stream that Sun generates off existing Java products, desktop and mobile, Oracle JavaFX mobile and TV business can bring a very attractive profit margin.

On the other hand, JavaFX Script is a new language, with a distinct syntax and steep learning curve. But if Oracle does not want to acquire Adobe, or pay hefty licensing fee for Microsoft Silverlight, using JavaFX for its GUI applications looks like a reasonable approach.

Being, perhaps, rationally optimistic, I would put "Long" on "OracleFX".

Please post your opinions and educated guesses.